The flapping of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil can cause a storm in Texas. It might seem unusual, but this was actually the title of a scientific study published back in 1972. Nothing is small in this world. Everything has an impact. Because everything is connected. And it is not everyone’s cup of tea to understand this mysterious concept.
American mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz, who used to do weather forecasting for the US Air Force, was working on a simulation of the Earth’s atmosphere. One day in 1961, he had 12 types of data, like temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind direction, etc. He took out the weather report from the computer. The machine showed that the weather would be sunny. He wanted to test the simulation again. So he thought of re-running the same program, and to save time, he picked up data from the middle and put it in the computer.
Expecting the same result to show again. But this time, the computer showed a completely different weather prediction. Now the machine was showing that a storm was about to come. He was shocked. He thought there was something wrong with the computer. But after thinking for many days, he found that while putting data into the computer, He had rounded off the value of the numbers to only three decimal places instead of six decimal places. This small difference of 0.001 caused such a big change in the weather, and in this way, the Chaos Theory was discovered. The figure formed by plotting that equation looks like a butterfly. That is why it is also called the butterfly effect. Its basic concept is that in a very big system, even a slight change in the smallest thing changes the entire system.
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Invest In Preparedness, Not In Prediction
The world’s most famous magician, Harry Houdini, had shown people such magic tricks in his time that the world had never seen before. One of those tricks was that he would call bodybuilders and strong men from the audience on stage. And ask them to punch his stomach, and those wrestlers’ punches did not hurt Houdini at all. But once in 1926, after his performance, Houdini called some students backstage to meet him. Then, a student named Golden Whitehead jokingly punched Houdini in the stomach. Due to this, Houdini’s appendix burst, and within a few days, Houdini died in the hospital. Houdini, who could bear the punches of big bodybuilders, was killed by a child’s punch.
Houdini was not prepared for that punch. When he used to call bodybuilders on stage, he knew that this person would punch me with such force. And he used to tighten his stomach muscles accordingly. But he died when he was not prepared for what was to come. Earthquakes happen frequently in California. Nobody knows when an earthquake will occur or how intense it will be. But the people there and the government keep themselves prepared for any kind of earthquake. From the design of the house to the rescue team, everyone is aware of this. That is why a great author, Nassim Taleb, says, “Invest in preparedness, not in predictions.
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Understand By an Example
Forget the trends and focus on those things that never change. In 2009, during the Great Recession, Warren Buffett and his friend were passing through the streets of Omaha, Nebraska. The streets were empty and the showrooms were closed. Then his friend asked Warren, The condition of the market is very bad. How will our country bounce back from this recession? Then Warren said, Do you know which was the best-selling candy bar in 1962? He said no.
Warren said Snickers, But do you know which is the best-selling candy bar today? The friend said no, then Warren Buffett softly said Snickers. And the conversation ended there. Warren Buffett believes that everything changes but some things do not change. So invest your time, energy and money in those things which do not change.
That is why Warren Buffett invests in Coca-Cola, Heinz Ketchup and Insurance companies. Because no matter how the world looks in 2050, But even then people will want to feel safe, will drink cold drinks and put ketchup on their burgers and sandwiches. Then, in this changing world, you should focus on those elements that never change. And one of its parts is storytelling.
Stories Are More Powerful Than Statistics
Everyone knows that the Titanic was a very big ship, and it sank. But in the shipping industry, many ships bigger than the Titanic have sunk, and many more people have died than on the Titanic. But you only know about the Titanic because that is the only story that has been told to people; that is why you know about it.
You may not know the data on how many people died in the Syrian refugee crisis. But you must have seen this photo of a 3-year-old child, Aylan Kurdi. This one photo made the whole news worldwide. Due to which many world leaders came into action and addressed the crisis. The world runs on stories, not data.
Charles Darwin did not discover the theory for the first time. Many people had claimed the theory before him. But the world knows Charles Darwin today because he presented that theory with the most compelling story. The author of the book “Sapiens”, which has sold more than 21 million copies, says that I have not discovered anything new; I have just presented facts with stories.
Stephen Hawking has also written in his book “A Brief History of Time” that, Every equation written in a physics book slows down sales. He also believed that people need memorable stories and not lectures.
Seek Permanent Information
There are two types of information in the world, one is permanent and the other is expiring. Most news and social media posts are expiring information. After a few days or months, that information is no longer useful And that kind of content consumes most of your attention. Because the internet is full of such things. Whereas finding permanent information is very difficult because it is hidden in the pages of history.
Expiring information only tells you what happened, but permanent information also tells you why it happened. And what are the factors that will keep such incidents from happening in future? Girls are gold diggers. This is incomplete and expiring information. But understanding female psychology is permanent information. No matter how much you use the internet, as long as you consume expired information, there will be no change in your life. So give your time and attention to such content that does not change even in the coming years.
Terrible Events Breeds Innovation
When people are happy, the whole world runs peacefully, and nothing innovative happens at that time. People do something only when their survival is in danger. In 1930, when a very big economic depression was going on, the output of American factories increased by 41%. At the same time, they built the maximum number of highways and electric grid lines. Work is done only under stress and urgency. The militaries are considered the engine of innovation because it deals with such urgent and vital problems that there is no question of money and manpower.
World War 2 was a very stressful time. The whole world was in a stressful situation because of Adolf Hitler. At the same time, many incredible innovations like radar, the internet, microwave ovens, antibiotics and GPS took place. If you remove all the bad events from the world, you will also remove innovation along with it. Then prepare a mini war-type situation for yourself.
The world is Driven By Envy
Investor Charlie Munger used to say that the world is driven by envy and not greed. 30-40 years ago, the household used to run well even with very little money. Everyone used to live happily. Today, people’s lifestyle is many times better than in 1950. People have better infrastructure, education, health care and connectivity. But still, the satisfaction and happiness level of people is many times lower than in 1950. Because after the Second World War in 1945, the condition of 99% of the people was the same.
And everyone’s lives had improved to the same extent. That’s why the overall population was happy and satisfied. But after that, inequality kept increasing. The wealth gap between the rich and the poor kept increasing. And with the advent of social media, people started showing off that wealth. The standards of comparing lifestyle, relationships, skin colour and body shape became international.
Due to this, the expectations of common people have increased so much that, even after improvements in their lives, people do not get happiness and satisfaction. There is a saying in France: it’s easy if you just want to be happy, but it’s impossible if you want to be happier than others. And this is the reason for your sadness. Because wealth and happiness are not objective but relative. In India, the son of a village sarpanch would consider himself rich by purchasing a Fortuner. Because everyone around him is poor. His wealth will be considered poverty in Singapore.
Never Meet Your Heroes
John Maynard Keynes was a great fan of Newton. He once bought all the original papers of Isaac Newton at an auction, which the world had never seen. John Maynard considered Newton to be the smartest human being in the world and believed that Newton would be completely scientific. But when he read the original papers of Newton, he came to know that Newton believed in things like black magic and immortality herbs.
Now this thing was quite shocking for John Maynard because he considered him brilliant. And he never thought that Newton would be interested in such magical powers. Due to which his heart got broken. When you get close to a person, you start seeing his flaws. When you see his carefully crafted personality from behind the curtain, then perception and reality do not match.
But you should understand one thing, those whose good habits are different from the world, their bad habits are also different from the world. People who are abnormally masterful in one thing will be fools in other things. Therefore, maintain some distance from those people whom you want to respect till your death.
Because, if you try to know more about them then there are 80% chance that there will be something about them that you will not like at all. And you will lose respect for them. There are many people whom I respect a lot, so to maintain that respect I never want to meet them. Because they are also human beings, they too will have some shortcomings which I do not want to see.
Conclusion of Same as Ever By Morgan Housel
- Invest In Preparedness: NOT IN PREDICTION. Don’t try to predict the future. Stop guessing and read history because history always repeats. The more history you read, the more you will become comfortable with future changes.
- Stories Are More Powerful Than Statistics: People need memorable stories, not lectures.
- Seek Permanent Information: Consume such content that remains relevant even after years.
- Terrible Events Breeds Innovation: People do something only when their survival is in danger. So, A little bit of pressure is good.
- World Is Driven By Envy: The world is driven by envy and not by greed. No matter how much technology advances, man’s fear, lust, greed and envy will never end. So get control over it. Your life will be set automatically.
- Never Meet Your Heroes: Never meet your idols. Keep them as ideals.
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